Analyses

STRATEGIECS Team

Oct 5, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to establish a ceasefire in Gaza faces complex challenges, including Hamas’s stance and the plan’s own structural and organizational weaknesses, making its implementation difficult. Although presented as a comprehensive framework to end the war, Hamas’s response and the U.S. welcome of it have effectively dismantled the plan’s unity, turning it into a gradual approach that begins with releasing detainees in exchange for halting military operations, while postponing the remaining provisions to later negotiation phases. The plan also falls short of addressing Gaza’s urgent humanitarian needs, which risks triggering indirect waves of displacement. Given the plan’s complexity and the failure of previous gradual approaches, the future of the war and the fate of the Gaza Strip remain open to multiple scenarios.