Syria: Transformations, Variables, and the Future of the State of Uncertainty

STRATEGIECS Team

Jul 17, 2025

The Suwayda Governorate in southern Syria witnessed a significant security escalation following clashes between Druze factions and Bedouin tribes, which was followed by a military intervention by the Syrian transitional government. This prompted Israel to carry out airstrikes, which it considered a response to the violation of the “demilitarized zone” principle and its commitments toward the Druze community. As a result, Syrian forces withdrew and a ceasefire agreement was signed with the religious authority in Suwayda that also included local security and administrative arrangements. These developments revealed a gap in the transitional government’s understanding of the Israeli position, placing its presence in the south—and its relations with the Druze and Kurds—under challenges that may reshape the balance of power.