Analyses

STRATEGIECS Team

Mar 4, 2026

The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei represents a pivotal moment in the history of Iran. It opens a complex phase of political transition in light of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, mounting internal pressure, and the intensifying competition between the reformists and hardliners. The succession of the Supreme Leader may ultimately be determined either through constitutional mechanisms or through the Interim Leadership Council. Three main scenarios emerge: the continuation of the existing power structure with a new conservative Supreme Leader, a redistribution of authority that reduces the powers of the Supreme Leader in favor of the elected institutions, or a structural change that could affect the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist principle and nature of the regime, depending on the course of the war and the internal balances.