Analyses

STRATEGIECS Team

Nov 5, 2026

Several scenarios are being considered for a potential U.S.-Iran confrontation amid stalled negotiations, escalating mutual military and economic pressure, and diverging political calculations over the resumption of military operations. The paper examines Iran's domestic challenges, Washington's and Tel Aviv's calculations, and the prospects of a transition to an open military confrontation or the continuation of a state of "no war no peace."