Analyses

STRATEGIECS Team

Jun 28, 2026

Although the understanding reduces the likelihood of direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran in the short term, it does not necessarily establish the fundamental pillars of a stable regional order. Instead, it may contribute to the gradual erosion of U.S. deterrence, particularly as it reinforces the perception that Iran has been able to withstand pressure and impose its own terms under the Memorandum of Understanding, contrary to the discourse of concessions and dictates that had been promoted since the first round of negotiations in Muscat in mid-April 2025.