Operation Gideon’s Chariots: Is It the Last Stage of the War?

On May 18, Israel launched a large-scale military operation in the Gaza Strip named “Gideon’s Chariots” that was approved by the Israeli Cabinet on May 6. The operation aims to achieve all the objectives of the war: the dismantling and defeat of Hamas, establishing military control over the Gaza Strip, and securing the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza. Operation Gideon’s Chariots, launched two months after Israel resumed the war on March 17, marks the Israeli military’s third major campaign since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, following Operation Iron Swords, which lasted 15 months, and Operation Strength and Sword, which lasted four months. Gideon’s Chariots, however, is unfolding amid highly complex Israeli, regional, and international circumstances, raising questions about both its declared and undeclared objectives, as well as its possible outcomes, which could bring an end to the war that has been ongoing for nearly 19 months, whether through the stalling of its goals, partial success, or complete achievement.

Gideon’s Chariots: Significance and Objectives

The name Gideon’s Chariots carries historical and biblical connotations, tracing back to the story of the Jewish military leader Gideon in the Hebrew Bible’s Book of Judges. This is the second time the name Gideon has been used in a military context, the first being in a 1948 Jewish paramilitary operation in the Beit She’an area aimed to displace Muslim and Christian residents.

The current use of the name reflects an expansion in Israel’s matrix of objectives, most notably signifying a shift from rhetoric about displacement to its actual implementation. The operation is expected to result in one of the largest population movements, affecting around 2 million people, since the beginning of the war, which will result in the largest concentration of civilians in a confined geographical enclave. According to Israeli plans, this would involve confining the population to the area between the Philadelphi Corridor and the Morag Axis, a new military corridor in southern Gaza.

Conversely, the operation is closely tied to shaping the post-war reality in the Gaza Strip. It is based on the assumption that the Israeli army, which launched a large-scale ground offensive on May 18 alongside intense airstrikes, will establish control and create a permanent infrastructure to occupy areas from which the population has been displaced. This includes imposing military rule over Gaza and controlling the distribution of humanitarian aid.

Israel has already begun preparing on the ground to relocate the population southward, specifically by setting up the area south of Rafah to receive displaced residents of the Strip. It is also implementing a new mechanism for distributing humanitarian aid in line with these plans. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an American organization, will oversee aid distribution at four main centers: three in the southern part of the Strip and one in the central area near the Netzarim Corridor.

This arrangement effectively places northern Gaza outside the aid distribution network. To receive aid, residents in the north will have to travel either to the Netzarim Corridor or the border crossing in the southern city of Rafah. Through this strategy, along with ongoing military pressure in the north, Israel is actively pushing the population southward.

The ground phase of Operation Gideon’s Chariots began in Deir al-Balah, located in central Gaza but north of the designated humanitarian zone, coinciding with evacuation orders issued to residents in the far north of the Gaza Strip.

Although Operation Gideon’s Chariots has received widespread attention, it is not, in fact, Israel’s first attempt to pave the way for the displacement of Gaza’s population. It was preceded by what became known as the “Generals’ Plan”, which was revealed during the Israeli army’s military operation in the far northern areas of the Gaza Strip —Jabalia, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahia— on October 6, 2024.

The difference lies in scale. Gideon’s Chariots is a much broader operation, encompassing the entire Gaza Strip. Furthermore, the new aid distribution mechanism does not significantly differ from a previously announced Israeli plan known as the “humanitarian bubbles” initiative. Under this model, the population would be confined to restricted, protected zones within a narrow geographic enclave, laying the groundwork for their voluntary or forced displacement in the future.

Israeli and International Challenges to the Objectives of the Operation

The practical implementation of Israel’s plan is creating a new reality in the Gaza Strip, both in terms of its demographic composition and on-the-ground dynamics. This poses significant challenges for Hamas, which stands to lose influence in areas previously under its authority and control, including over aid distribution and ensuring its security.

At the same time, Israel is intensifying pressure on Hamas’s leadership and governance structures in the Strip, especially through targeted strikes against the group’s ministerial headquarters and political and administrative leaders since the war resumed. Notably, on May 14 Israel announced it had targeted and possibly killed Mohammed Sinwar, who succeeded his brother, Yahya Sinwar, as the leader of Hamas in Gaza after he died in a firefight with Israeli forces in October 2024.

Through these actions, Israel is tightening the pressure on Hamas while also offering it a way out of its difficult stance by accepting an Israeli condition for a partial deal that would see the release of some Israeli hostages. This is taking place within ongoing negotiations led by U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff that began May 14 in Doha.

However, Israel is also facing complex and multifaceted pressures. After 19 months of war, global public opinion has reached a high level of rejection of the conflict, as reflected in recent official statements from leaders in the United States and Europe. Among these are comments from U.S. President Donald Trump expressing his desire to end the war and acknowledging the unprecedented hunger threatening the lives of thousands of Gaza’s residents.

Before this, the United States conducted independent negotiations with Hamas, resulting in the May 13 release of Israeli-American soldier Edan Alexander, which Hamas spokesman Basem Naim told Newsweek magazine was a “goodwill gesture” toward the United States.

As a result, there are serious Israeli fears of international isolation due to damage to its relations with the U.S. administration and the tougher stances of European countries now demanding an end to the war and the delivery of aid. Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Canada have threatened to take concrete measures that may include imposing sanctions if Israel refuses to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza.

Moreover, Israel is facing several internal obstacles with economic, legal, social, political, and military implications. Chief among these is the shortage and ongoing depletion of reserve forces due to the prolonged duration of the war, raising questions about the Israeli army’s ability to maintain a permanent military presence in the Gaza Strip. There is also the potential threat of an insurgency of guerilla warfare led by Hamas or other armed factions that could further increase Israeli military losses.

Such developments could impact Israel’s ability to maintain deterrence and military superiority in other areas of the region, particularly Iran. Additionally, Israel’s move toward occupying Gaza undermines Egypt’s reconstruction plan and closes the door to Arab contributions in shaping the post-war future, especially options such as deploying forces to maintain security or training Palestinian forces for that purpose.

Scenarios of Operation Gideon’s Chariots

Operation Gideon’s Chariots places the war in the Gaza Strip at a pivotal and decisive moment. On one hand, its success would mean the war ends on Israel’s terms. On the other hand, a prolonged continuation of the war could drag the Israeli army into a war of attrition through guerrilla tactics, potentially leading to political and military shifts within Israel itself. Overall, it appears that Operation Gideon’s Chariots is heading toward one of the following scenarios.

First Scenario: The Operation Achieves Its Objectives

Achieving the declared and undeclared objectives of the operation would mean the official and complete end of the war. However, this is considered the worst-case scenario for the Gaza Strip, its residents, and the unprecedented humanitarian situation there, especially since the current situation on the ground aligns with Israeli plans, in terms of rendering many of the cities and neighborhoods uninhabitable. This comes in addition to the clear intentions of the Israeli government to push the operation toward fulfilling its goals. On May 24, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported that the army had deployed all its regular infantry and armored brigades into the Strip as part of a plan involving the entry of five military divisions.

Nevertheless, Israel faces challenges in completing the operation, given the limited time available, mounting international and regional pressure, and the absence of any countries willing to support displacement plans or accept residents of the Gaza Strip. This implies that the Israeli army will remain in prolonged contact with Gaza’s population, leading to continued exhaustion of its capabilities, something Israel does not appear capable of sustaining after 19 months of war.

Second Scenario: Halting the Operation
The operation may come to a halt after achieving part of its objectives or by focusing primarily on the far northern areas of the Gaza Strip or simply due to the lack of sufficient time to fully implement it. The Israeli army has already experienced the difficulty of operating on the ground in Gaza, particularly in densely populated areas. For instance, Operation Jabalia Camp in October 2024 lasted over a month and was the third focused operation in the Jabalia area since the war began. This indicates that applying the same model across other parts of the Strip could take years, potentially leading to a state of strategic stagnation—if the war hasn’t already reached that point—in which military force can no longer achieve any further gains. The next phase must therefore be political.

The operation could also be halted as a result of a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations, which may start as a temporary truce according to the latest proposal by Witkoff, and then expand into broader negotiations for a full and comprehensive cessation of hostilities. This is especially plausible now that the negotiations are no longer limited to the two warring parties, as the United States has become a central actor in its talks with Hamas. The outcome of these talks may provide a pathway to end the war.

Scenario Three: Stalemate in the Operation

This means that Israel is unable to achieve its objectives within a set timeframe, effectively turning the situation into a prolonged phase of the war that began on October 7, 2023. It becomes a form of ongoing conflict marked by mutual attrition, significantly increasing Hamas’s losses and gradually stripping it of the ability to maintain control over the Gaza Strip. At the same time, this stalemate could lead to the collapse of the ruling Israeli coalition, as the war reaches a state of strategic stagnation and becomes an unsustainable burden for Israel.

Moreover, the continuation of the operation without securing the release of the hostages poses a direct threat to their lives. Israeli sources have warned about the growing dangers surrounding the hostages, which could trigger a sharp shift in public opinion against the government and its parties.