Zero-Sum Game: Belated Awakening of the 60-Year-Old Munich Security Conference

Marking its 60th anniversary, this year’s Munich Security Conference attended by roughly 700 world leaders, experts, and representatives of international organizations took place amidst high levels of uncertainty regarding the future of the international system and the fate of Western dominance as symbolized by the conference itself.

Held February 16–18, discussions throughout the two days were dominated by issues directly related to wars and conflicts.

• The developments in Ukraine after the Russian army captured the strategic city of Avdiivka in the Donbas region earlier that month.
• Western concerns about anticipated Russian threats to NATO territory were amplified, alongside the challenges associated with the war in Gaza and the escalating tensions in supporting arenas, such as the Red Sea.
• Changes occurring in the African continent following a series of coups and the increasing escalation in the South China Sea.

These issues were encapsulated in the conference’s theme “Loss for All,” acknowledging for the first time that today’s international conflict is transitioning into a zero-sum game.

Western Concerns

The discussions at this year’s Munich Conference reflect the core issues that preoccupy and engage the Western world. Although it is considered a global event, the conference speaks on behalf of the European mindset and how it views the world. This can be observed by comparing the atmosphere of this year’s conference with previous years.

Last year, the conference theme “Re:vision” reflected the unified Western stance on the Russian-Ukrainian war and the rise of China. This unity was seen as an opportunity to restore transatlantic relations and preserve Western dominance in the existing international system, especially within the framework of its vision of the international conflict between democratic and authoritarian camps.Top of Form

However, that Western determination yielded extremely worrying results. Despite Western financial, economic, logistical, and military support for Ukraine, the counterattack by the Ukrainian army had disappointing results, especially after the West wagered a substantial bet on Ukraine defeating Russia or, at least, Russia’s retreat and the undeniable embarrassment of its leadership.

The timing of the conference coincided with reports from Russia of its army’s control over the strategic and heavily fortified city of Avdiivka, the death of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny in his Russian cell, and fears of the Russian army’s control over the remaining cities in Donbass—especially its next target, the city of Solydarnost—which would mean a tightening grip of Russian forces on southern and eastern Ukraine.

As the war enters its third year, Western support and aid to Ukraine have declined due to the setback in the counterattack and the wavering of Western support. The U.S. Congress obstructed $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, while the popularity of the support provided diminishes. The repercussions of the war on the economic situation in Europe are growing, with widespread protests over the import of tariff-free Ukrainian grain and fruit led by farmers in most major cities across Europe.

All of this coincides with a shift in European attitudes towards increased spending on security and defense. It is estimated that will spend 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense in 2024. In contrast, Russia had already raised its military spending in 2023 to 5.9% of its GDP.

For the first time in its history, the conference discussed the idea of Russia’s success in Ukraine and its attempt to regain its historical influence in Europe, especially in NATO territories, particularly the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. On February 9, former Danish Defense Minister Trine Bramsen warned that Russia might attack NATO within three to five years. Additionally, on February 14, the chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives’ intelligence committee issued a statement  warning of a “serious national security threat” regarding Russia that sources said involves operations in space.

A World of Crises

The war in the Gaza Strip and its regional ramifications, especially in the Red Sea area and the escalation in Lebanon, have been important topics in conference discussions and debates. They highlight the gap in international approaches to conflict resolution, particularly between northern countries (represented by the Western bloc) and southern countries (developing nations).

The the Munich Security Conference is considered a global platform for the security field around the world to exchange ideas, assert positions, and hold discussions. For more than 60 years, its organizers have sought to promote the idea that they are capable of enhancing security through the participation of brilliant minds from around the world coming together to address the most pressing security challenges of our time.

Despite the celebratory atmosphere of this year’s conference honoring the hard work of those who have dedicated themselves to protecting our world through the collective and community power in confronting constantly evolving threats, issues in the Middle East were discussed from a single perspective and viewpoint, with preconceived judgments despite the number of victims and those affected. This is because global conflicts have a hierarchical order, with not all issues deemed equally important and deserving of attention.

This applies to the war in Gaza since the Western stance that supports Israel does not take into consideration the humanitarian cost of the war. Germany, for example, may be charged alongside Israel as a third party in a case brought by the International Court of Justice.

Even the discussions about the war and its regional and international repercussions are focused on its implications on Western interests. In December 2023 the United States launched “Operation Prosperity Guardian” to defend freedom of navigation in the Red Sea against missile and drone attacks. Two months later, the European Union launched “Operation Aspides” to further protect merchant ships against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Western policies are not limited to the Middle East or the stance on the Gaza war. They extend to other regions of the world as well. Western countries have long focused on their interests in the African continent, often without paying attention to the social and economic dimensions of these nations. This has been one of the reasons behind the decline of the democratic experience in Africa, where traditional spheres of influence in the African Sahel and Sahara regions are undergoing significant changes.

For instance, in the past three years alone there have been eight coups, the latest being in Gabon, preceded by Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad, and Mali. Many of the leaders who emerged from these coups are military figures opposed to European, particularly French, influence, as well as opponents of Western demands for the implementation of democratic principles and practices.

This not only pushes the region towards substituting European influence with Russian, but it also exacerbates the problems of irregular migration and refugee influx towards Europe. For example, in 2022 the number of illegal migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea to Europe increased by about 56% compared to 2021.

The organizers of the Munich Conference acknowledged this issue. Its conference report calls for adopting a comprehensive vision to establish stability in Africa that encompasses political, security, economic, and social factors rather than prioritizing security solutions alone. However, this step may be belated considering the profound changes occurring in the African continent.             

Loss for All

Over the years, Western countries have identified both Russia and China as direct threats to the pillars of the global order. In a time of increasing fear over the outcomes of the Russian war on Ukraine and its geopolitical repercussions in the European continent, the West’s relationship with China is in a sensitive phase.

On one hand, European countries need to diversify their investments and companies to compete with the Chinese market for the European companies. On the other hand, the competition is intensifying in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, particularly in the South China Sea between the United States and China.

The conflict has escalated into an accelerating arms race taking a zero-sum character. China seeks singular domination over the seas, transforming the region into an exclusive sphere of Chinese domination. Meanwhile, the United States persists in diversifying its relationships with East Asian countries, reducing its economic reliance on China, and empowering itself in security roles through multi-lateral policies and partnerships with India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and others.    

However, this time the Munich report was clear in indicating that competition between great powers means everyone will lose. The concept of loss here relates to the Western purpose, especially in its waning influence in several regions of the world. From the perspective of South countries, competition shouldn’t entail losers. Meanwhile, Western countries try to impose their dominance on the world through military force and sanctions, disregarding global development trends that are increasingly divergent from the West.

Countries in Latin America, Asia, and Africa are experiencing advancements across multiple economic, security, and social fields: India, China, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, and Turkey, to name a few. Meanwhile, Western countries still prefer to consider them as subjects rather than partners in the international system. The ongoing shift in South countries can be understood through the increasing calls to address power and position: the dominance of the minority in international decisions made by the UN Security Council and other entities, and to enhance the roles of South countries as they strive to carve a place for themselves in the international community.

Therefore, the concept of loss adopted by the conference reflects the outcomes rather than the causes. The rise of the Global South came as a result of long-term policies of hegemony over nations and the exploitation of their resources to maintain prosperity in the Global North.

This approach was articulated on October 13, 2022 by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell when he declared: “Europe is a garden … most of the rest of the world is a jungle.” He then urged the “gardeners” to go into the “jungle” in protection of the “garden.” A week later, he issued a half-hearted apology.

In reality, Borrell’s perspective reflects the Eurocentric culture that has governed Europe relationship with the world for centuries.

Finally, the 60-year-old Munich Security Conference may represent the beginning of a wake-up call for the West, arising from the gap between the positions of North and South countries on most of the issues discussed at the conference. However, it can also be considered a belated awakening due to the rapid pace of transformations that North countries struggle to take decisive positions on, as these transformations are largely objective in nature.