STRATEGIECS: A 2024 Year-End Message on the Priority of Foresight in a Complex World and a Tightly Interwoven Regional Landscape

The year 2024 is considered a renewed example of the volatile reality of the Middle East and the deep interconnection between its issues that have ongoing consequences and aftershocks affecting a multitude of countries in the region and the world. The Hamas-led attacks on Israeli settlements and military bases in the Gaza envelope on October 7, 2023, created regional and international repercussions that will last well into 2025 and perhaps beyond. Especially important, the war marked the first and largest application of the “unification of arenas” strategy in which different groups coordinate their actions against Israel. These include the Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis, and the Iraqi armed factions. Their coordinated participation in the war in Gaza has garnered the attention of the whole world due to the risks it poses for a broader regional war.

The events of the last year came as a continuation of the October attacks, further clarifying the application of the “unification of arenas” strategy. Exactly because these events and what followed were a surprise to the majority of the observers, experts, and even decisionmakers, the STRATEGIECS Institute monitored their repercussions closely. The institute was among the first think tanks to shed light on the unification of arenas. Before the Iranian actions and the Israeli countermeasures, the institute tracked the evolution of this strategy. This led to our prediction of its eventual separation and independence in terms of goals and destiny.

As we foresaw, almost a year after these predictions, the Israeli airstrikes removed Hezbollah from the equation of the unification of arenas. This was followed by a campaign led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham that resulted in a change of the regime in Syria and the government’s escape from the forcefield of Iranian influence. This was significant, given the pivotal geographical importance of Syria to Iran’s unification of arenas strategy.

These changes, among other aftershocks of the war in Gaza, are altering the balance of power that had been established in the Middle East since 2003, and they could also impose radical changes on the alliances and alignments of other countries in the region.

In fact, the war in Gaza and its aftershocks are an example of the complexities that surround the various issues and conflicts of the Middle East. It also highlights the main challenge that politicians face in providing predictions amid an environment that is characterized by rapid change and transformation. Decisionmakers need realistic, scientific and enlightened forecasts that contribute to creating a clear response to the challenges, negative long-term effects, and the dramatic changes resulting from the war. In general, it is clear that the emerging risks related to the war need an effective response.

In such circumstances, the importance of the Think Tank and Research centers is evident regarding of assessing the foreseeing emerging events, assessing them, and providing the appropriate policies in response to it. These institutions should not remain isolated from ongoing and new developments.

From this perspective, the STRATEGIECS Institute worked actively to develop methodologies that can evaluate factors and set directions, scenarios and pathways. We developed position assessment papers that enhanced foresight in addressing rapidly unfolding events, also we have developed the methodologies of position assessment alongside the classical form that relied on scenarios, pathways and directions were added, which allows tracking the pathways of the events according to a series of each event’s developments and repercussions.

A Year of Achievements

The year 2024 has served as a test for the STRATEGIECS Institute to assess the accuracy of the methodologies it has developed over the past years, as well as an operational platform to utilize the accumulated expertise of its team. This was particularly evident in the teams’ ability to devise results and forecast directions related to various events and issues. The results have been highly promising, both in terms of the pace of research output and the accuracy of our predictions.

The institute extensively covered the majority of the region’s developments and the main international issues, starting from the development of the war in Gaza, the war in Lebanon, the downfall of the regime in Syria, and the changes in Iran after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi and the rise of the reformists in the country. Today, Iran has an internal issue regarding who is going to succeed the Supreme Leader since Raisi was the most prominent candidates for this role. In addition, external changes and the decreasing Iranian role in countries such as Lebanon and Syria have reduced Tehran’s regional weight.

The institute also covered the changes in Israel regarding the relationships between the military and the politicians, the parliamentary majority and the opposition, the state and the society, and between Israel and the international community. The war in Gaza renewed the international argument regarding Israeli policies and measures against Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank. It prompted many countries to reconsider their relationship with Israel and their stance regarding the Palestinian cause. This was especially evident as international judicial bodies issued decisions on the matter. Among those countries is the United States, which changed its stance toward the war during President Joe Biden’s administration and it is likely that this will change once more since Donald Trump won the presidential election.

In addition, the institute kept up with the most prominent elections around the world, especially the Jordanian parliamentary elections that witnessed for the first time a broad party participation that created a parliamentary landscape dominated by parties. We also covered the dramatic changes in both the UK and France after the Left’s victory in the parliamentary elections marked their return as a parliamentary majority after decades of being out of power.

In light of the complex and intertwined international security landscape the risks posed by the terrorist groups and the non-state actors remained constant threat. ISIS’s bloody attacks at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in March were followed the next month with an deadly attack inside a mosque in Oman’s capitol, Muscat.

In total, the institute published 65 research products, including position assessment papers, political analyses, opinion pieces, papers marked as “STRATEGIECS Lens,” and one survey for opinion leaders in Jordan. They all included insights into future progress of events and the nature of the international, regional, and UN interaction, as well as insightful perceptions for both field  developments  and political pathways. The institute’s position assessment papers covered 51 scenarios and courses of action related to the ongoing war, 17 of which materialized in reality. Additionally, 12 scenarios that we deemed were among the most likely proved to be 100% accurate. Lastly, eight predictions made in the policy analysis papers were also accurate.

Among the many accurate scenarios and predictions: Israel’s intentions to impose a total siege on the Gaza Strip following the October attacks; the expectation of the war expanding into new arenas, particularly in Lebanon; the likelihood of resuming the war after the ceasefire in November 2023; and the early prediction of the separation of the war’s arenas in terms of objectives and narratives. On a different subject, the institute assessed the difficulty of a rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, contrary to what was being widely discussed at the time.

Regarding the most likely scenarios, the institute predicted that the U.S. response to the attack on the Tower (22) base would be limited to a series of strikes against the Iraqi Hezbollah brigades. It also pointed to the ongoing complexities surrounding any potential agreement to halt the war in the Gaza Strip. The institute also forecasted a shift in Iran’s political landscape, with an early prediction of the reformist candidate Masoud Bezhkishian winning the presidential election.

By June 2024, the institute indicated that Israel might engage in a limited ground military maneuver in southern Lebanon, predicting that this would end with U.S. and international intervention leading both Israel and Hezbollah toward a diplomatic path. The scenario gained increasing credibility in September 2024 when Israel seemed poised to carry out a ground operation aimed at establishing a security zone up to the Litani River. This operation was expected to exert pressure on Hezbollah, limiting its ability to recover and reorganize. In a later phase of this operation, the institute  pre-emptively highlighted Israeli plans to maintain operational military freedom in southern Lebanon. It anticipated that both parties would agree to work within the framework of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, with the likely continuation of its Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mission, albeit with adjustments to its implementation mechanisms.

In a similar vein, the institute made effective and accurate forecasts, including that Biden’s plan for a ceasefire would not succeed. It also proposed the possibility of Hamas’s political office leaving Doha, highlighting the challenges obstructing the restoration of Turkish-Syrian relations under the former Syrian regime. In addition, the institute predicted the return of Israeli targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders both inside and outside the Palestinian territories, and it assessed that the series of escalations following the “Majdal Shams” attack would not lead to a full-scale war or even large-scale clashes between Hezbollah and Israel during that period.

Additionally, the institute foresaw attempts by Hamas to launch qualitative attacks inside Israeli borders after the selection of Yahya Sinwar as its political leader. It also predicted that the likelihood of the three mediating countries being able to halt the war was weak following their joint statement on August 8, 2024. The institute also accurately predicted that Israel would launch its second attack on Iran from its own territory, passing through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, with a strike focusing on military industries and Iranian defense sites.

Given the results achieved and the demonstrated effectiveness and adaptability to the changing landscape of the Middle East, the STRATEGIECS Institute enters 2025 with promising aspirations and great ambitions. The institute is overseeing a transformative shift in both its visual identity and editorial footprint.

On the identity front, the institute aims to keep pace with technological advancements globally and to fully leverage the potential of artificial intelligence. This is exemplified in the upcoming launch of the institute’s new website in early 2025, which will integrate cutting-edge technological tools to enhance user experience, particularly in how research papers are presented through various visual, audio, and textual formats.

Furthermore, the institute plans to expand its engagement with new media platforms through the updated website, which will feature dedicated spaces for podcasts, open discussions, and contributions by experts in their field. Upon its launch, the site will host diverse programs presenting high-quality political insights and discussions, making it easier for the institute’s audience to access critical information and stay informed.

Moreover, STRATEGIECS Institute is looking forward to introducing new research methodologies to its worldwide audience. Our goals include developing our proven research and methodology tools, as well as expanding the scope of our research. Alongside traditional foresight approaches, the institute’s development of mechanisms to support decisionmakers in the region will enhance its capacity to determine the outcomes of their policies, explore alternatives, and strengthen the ability of decisionmakers to respond to changes in the regional and international landscape.

Presenting proposals before decisionmakers shape their polices is a pivotal and essential role for a research institute. This is supported by our broad assessment of the outcomes of our research and foresight on many significant events and qualitative scenarios. The proposals we provide are centered around practical policy alternatives—those that should be pursued, avoided, or combined with other available options—along with identifying the pathways associated with each alternative.

This effort, as demonstrated by the accuracy and independence of the outputs and objectivity of the institute’s theses, provided a positive impact on supporting the pathways of national and regional stability. Consequently, our aspirations have become more realistic and practical.