Strategic Transformations in Israel and Their Regional Repercussions

Introduction

This paper examines the political and security transformations Israel is undergoing at a stage in which the electoral process intersects with the repercussions of prolonged wars, the reformulation of the state's strategic vision, and declining international public support for Israel. It also examines the mounting challenges related to the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and Iran, alongside developments in Syria, unrest in the Red Sea, and developments in Saudi-Pakistani relations, as well as growing threats in cyberspace and low-altitude airspace.

The paper assumes that the essence of this phase lies not in Israel’s transition from war to the post-war period, but rather in its shift from a logic of crisis management to an internal and external struggle over the concept of security, the limits of power, and the conditions for translating tactical military achievements into lasting strategic gains.

The paper concludes that the upcoming elections will serve as a magnifying lens for Israel's internal contradictions, particularly the crisis over Haredi conscription, settler violence, the future of religious-right currents, the potential rise of political alternatives such as Gadi Eisenkot, and the post-Netanyahu era within Likud. Other key issues include the fluctuating relationship with Washington, the limits of Israel's ability to impose arrangements on the Palestinians or the region, the path toward a two-state solution, and Israeli legitimacy. It also concludes that the regional environment is not moving rapidly toward a decisive outcome, but rather tends toward a cautious wait-and-see posture.

Background and General Context

Israel is operating in a strategic environment characterized by a heightened level of uncertainty. The upcoming elections are not an internal factor separate from regional dynamics, but rather a central variable that will influence the ordering of security and political priorities, decisions on escalation and de-escalation, and the management of relations with the United States and Arab states. Therefore, any assessment of Israel’s strategic trajectory should take into account the political landscape that will emerge from the elections, the nature of the next government coalition, and the limits of its ability to make long-term decisions.

In this context, the concept of the "day after the war" is no longer precise, as there is no clear resolution on whether the war has ended or even which war is meant: Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, or other overlapping or supporting fronts. Therefore, this paper approaches the current phase as an extended transitional period characterized by the intersection of the military and political tracks, the domestic and regional dimensions, and the diplomatic and security spheres.

Central Idea

The central idea of this paper is to interpret the ongoing transformations in Israel, both domestically and regionally, and derive practical policy pathways as elections approach, amid the absence of a clear Israeli strategic vision and growing challenges related to security, legitimacy, and regional relations.

The paper seeks to answer a central question: What options are available to Arab and international actors for dealing with Israel during an open-ended transitional period, while minimizing the risks of escalation and maximizing opportunities to advance more stable arrangements?

Strategic Analysis

1- Elections as a Dominant Factor in Israeli Decision-Making

The upcoming elections appear likely to be the most prominent determinant of Israeli government behavior in the near term. Considerations related to the survival of the coalition, party dynamics, and opinion poll results will influence how the Israeli government manages escalation and de-escalation. Accordingly, upcoming Israeli decisions should be understood as the product of an interaction between genuine security assessments and domestic political calculations.

2- The Palestinian Issue as a Strategic Center of Gravity

The available evidence confirms that the Palestinian issue has re-emerged as a structural strategic challenge for Israel, following years of attempts to resolve or bypass it. This means that any regional breakthrough, including normalization with Saudi Arabia or the establishment of multilateral security and economic arrangements, will remain limited in impact unless it is linked to a credible political process concerning the future of the Palestinians. From a political perspective, ignoring the Palestinian issue is no longer a low-cost option; rather, it has become a constraint on Israel's room for maneuver within the international community and on its ability to build sustainable regional partnerships.

3- The West Bank and Settler Violence

Current indicators do not point to large-scale escalation in the West Bank beyond established security patterns, but they do indicate that the arena is more susceptible to flare-ups due to geographic and demographic overlap and the absence of clear boundaries. Settler violence acts as a risk multiplier, as it imposes additional burdens on the Israeli security establishment, damages Israel's international image, and could develop into an electoral issue that deepens domestic polarization and increases the fragility of the security landscape.

4- Gaza and the Twenty-Point Plan

The Gaza Strip remains the arena most closely linked to U.S. pressure and Israeli electoral calculations. President Trump’s twenty-point plan remains the prevailing framework, and the challenge lies not so much in the multiplicity of mediation channels as in the stagnation of the U.S. channel and the extent of Israel’s willingness to engage in further stages of implementation. Gaza will therefore remain a central test of Israel’s ability to move from managing the war to building a sustainable political and security arrangement.

5- Iran and the Unraveling of the Unification of the Arenas Strategy

The "Unification of the Arenas" strategy has weakened militarily, but it has not completely unraveled at the strategic level, particularly given the continuing Iranian threat and the possibility of new forms of regional coordination, including the potential emergence of a different Turkish role. U.S. relations with Iran will also directly affect Israel's room for maneuver, and any U.S.-Iranian negotiating process could lead to a reordering of Israel's priorities and regional behavior.

6- Arab Relations and Normalization with Saudi Arabia

The prospects for Saudi-Israeli normalization do not appear ripe in the near term unless appropriate and clearly defined conditions are in place, foremost among them a credible process concerning the Palestinians and guarantees related to the civilian nuclear program and relations with the United States. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may view normalization as a decisive electoral achievement, Saudi Arabia appears more inclined to avoid intervening in Israeli elections and to link any progress to its own conditions and long-term interests.

7- The Economy, Aviation, the Red Sea, and Defense Industries

The Israeli economy has adapted relatively well to disruptions in shipping routes in the Red Sea, while shifts in Houthi priorities and the likelihood of escalation involving Saudi Arabia appear limited. However, flight suspensions and declining tourism are causing direct harm to the Israeli economy and to the economies of neighboring countries such as Jordan and Egypt. At the same time, Israel benefits from the multiplicity of global crises by expanding its freedom of action and maximizing gains for its defense industries, making the security economy part of the power equation rather than merely a consequence of war.

8- Technology, Drones, Cybersecurity, and the Electoral Process

The drone incident and growing threats in low-altitude airspace demonstrate that Israel faces a new generation of low-cost, rapidly evolving threats, requiring a redefinition of domestic security and the protection of public figures and facilities. In parallel, there are internal and external attempts to influence the integrity of the elections, including Iranian cyber threats that remain limited but present. Despite Israel's advanced intelligence and cyber capabilities, the expanding scope of these threats makes electoral security and cybersecurity an integral part of the upcoming strategic assessment.

9- Domestic Politics: Conscription, the Religious Right, and the Post-Netanyahu Era

Israeli foreign policy cannot be separated from domestic polarization over the identity of the state. The issue of Haredi conscription is shifting from a right-left dispute to a dividing line between the Haredi parties and most of the political system. The Supreme Court's decision concerning the arrest of draft evaders also reflects a deeper struggle over the judiciary, legitimacy, and institutions. Meanwhile, the Religious Zionist Party appears committed to its political line despite its declining electoral prospects, while settler violence is becoming an electoral issue that political rivals are seeking to capitalize on. Within Likud, the crisis strengthens Netanyahu's position in the short term, but in the longer term it raises the question of succession and the post-Netanyahu era.

10- Syria, Pakistan, and Transformations in the Broader Regional Theater

Israel appears relatively comfortable with the current situation in Syria, where threats are limited and the required investment is low. Efforts to reintegrate Syria internationally are also largely assessed in terms of their utility and consistency with Israeli interests. Pakistan, meanwhile, as a nuclear-armed state, is reportedly engaged in secret dialogue with Israel, according to corroborating anonymous sources. This adds another layer of complexity to the regional equation, as Israel monitors this engagement under the U.S. umbrella and assesses its implications. This means that the regional theater is no longer confined to traditional fronts but is expanding to include nuclear-armed actors and undisclosed diplomatic channels.

Potential Scenarios

Scenario One: Continuation of the Gray-Zone Situation

- Scenario Description: Escalation remains at relatively limited and controlled levels across most arenas, while tensions persist in Gaza, the West Bank, and over Iran without developing into a broader regional confrontation.

- Likelihood: High in the near term, given the desire of most parties to manage risks without incurring the costs of a full-scale war before the outcome of the Israeli elections becomes clear.

- Political Implication: This scenario requires an approach based on close monitoring and preparedness for a rapid shift in priorities.

Scenario Two: Calculated Electoral Escalation

- Scenario Description: The Israeli government may undertake limited security or military operations if it believes that doing so would strengthen its electoral position or reshape the domestic agenda.

- Likelihood: Moderate, with the likelihood increasing if opinion polls deteriorate or coalition pressures intensify.

- Risks: The main risk is that calculated escalation could develop into an uncontrollable trajectory due to the multiplicity of arenas and the interconnectedness of the actors involved.

Scenario Three: Conditional Political Breakthrough

- Scenario Description: This scenario could materialize if an Israeli government is formed that is more capable of adopting a strategic vision and engages seriously with a U.S.-regional framework linking Gaza, the West Bank, and Saudi normalization within a broader political package.

- Likelihood: Moderate to low before the elections, increasing only if the elections produce a coalition capable of overcoming pressure from extremist forces.

- Political Implication: This scenario would open a limited window for building more sustainable regional arrangements.

Scenario Four: Multi-Arena Deterioration

- Scenario Description: This scenario involves outbreaks of violence in the West Bank, a setback in the Gaza track, or escalation with Iran or one of the actors aligned with it, alongside growing international and economic pressures.

- Likelihood: Less likely than the continuation of the gray-zone situation, but the most costly scenario.

- Implications: The consequences could directly affect neighboring states, trade corridors, the aviation and tourism sectors, and the level of regional political polarization.

Early Warning Indicators

1- A shift in opinion polls either in favor of or against Netanyahu in a manner that could prompt the government to pursue controlled escalation or calculated de-escalation.

2- Growing electoral rhetoric linking national security to a return to war or an expansion of operations in Gaza and the West Bank.

3- An increase in the frequency of settler violence or its becoming a central issue in election campaigns.

4- A setback in the implementation of the twenty-point plan or Israel's refusal to proceed to further stages in Gaza.

5- An increase in flight suspensions or the expansion of restrictions on airspace and tourism.

6- The emergence of drone attacks or threats in low-altitude airspace near sensitive figures or facilities.

7- Growing indications of external or domestic cyber interference in the electoral process.

8- A further deterioration in international public opinion toward Israel, particularly in political environments in the post-Trump era.

9- U.S. indications that Israel is being viewed as an obstacle to an understanding with Iran or to broader regional arrangements.

Conclusion

The available evidence ultimately presents a complex picture of Israel: a military and intelligence power with significant influence, but one facing a crisis of strategic vision, electoral pressure, declining international support, and the re-emergence of the Palestinian issue as a factor that cannot be bypassed. Accordingly, the most effective policy for the next phase combines strategic caution, conditional engagement, and preparedness for multiple scenarios, while rejecting any reduction of the ongoing transformations to a single military or electoral moment.