India-Pakistan Escalation Scenarios

Tensions are rising between Pakistan and India after punitive and retaliatory measures by both sides were soon followed by low-intensity military clashes along the 1972 ceasefire “Line of Control.” This escalation follows the April 22 armed attack in the Indian-administered Pahalgam region of Kashmir claimed by a militant group calling itself the Resistance Front, reportedly linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani Salafi jihadist militant organization intent on merging the whole of Kashmir with Pakistan.

Analyzing the border dispute between the two countries within the broader geopolitical contexts and the landscape of the international order points to two possible scenarios for the current escalation: either the tension will escalate over time into a war of attrition due to compounded pressures exerted by both sides or the escalation will lead to a limited border conflict that results in de-escalation without addressing the root causes of the dispute. Neither scenario is ideal.

New Round of Border Dispute Between India and Pakistan

India accused Pakistan of being involved in the attack carried out by gunmen in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir—an accusation denied by Pakistan, which called for a neutral international investigation. Since then, punitive and retaliatory measures between the two countries have escalated. India swiftly responded by closing its airspace to Pakistani flights, shutting down the Attari-Wagah border crossing, expelling Pakistani diplomats, canceling visas granted to Pakistani citizens in India, halting trade with Pakistan, and suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, one of the most successful water sharing endeavors in the world today. In return, Pakistan retaliated with its own measures, including suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement peace treaty, expelling diplomats, canceling visas, closing its airspace to Indian flights, and halting trade with India.

This tension is an extension of the longstanding border dispute dating back to 1947, when British India was partitioned into two independent states: India and Pakistan. Kashmir was placed under Indian administration, prompting the first war between the two nations in 1947 and 1948. The conflict ended in 1949 with a ceasefire that effectively divided Kashmir into two parts: one administered by India and the other by Pakistan. Subsequent rounds of war and escalation followed, including the second Indo-Pakistani war in 1965 and the Kargil War in 1999.

In reality, border disputes, widespread across the Asia region, are among the most complex and entangled issues, with geographical factors tightly entwined with political, religious, and ethnic dimensions. This makes such tensions persistent and periodically inflamed, sometimes pushing the involved countries to the brink of war. These Indo-Pakistani border demarcations, made during the British mandate, were later not recognized by the newly independent states.

Moreover, the region is also rife with opposition armed groups, and each country pursues its own strategic and geopolitical objectives amid a deep lack of mutual trust. For instance, a series of clashes and security tensions erupted in 2024 between Pakistan and Afghanistan over disagreements regarding border point demarcation. That same year, Pakistan and Iran exchanged shelling and withdrew their diplomatic missions after Iran accused an opposition group based in the Pakistani side of Balochistan of carrying out the Kerman bombings on January 3. Meanwhile, the Armenian-Azerbaijani war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region flared up a second time before Azerbaijan regained full control of the region in September 2023. On another front, clashes—for the first time in 45 years—broke out between Chinese and Indian armies in the Galwan Valley in June 2020, resulting in casualties on both sides.

Several new factors have emerged that have increased the complexities surrounding border disputes. In the case of Pakistan and India, tensions began to take a turn with the rise of hardline nationalist movements in India since 2014, when the Bharatiya Janata Party, which advocates a Hindu nationalist identity, came to power and Narendra Modi was appointed prime minister.

This shift was accompanied by expansionist ambitions and international roles that placed Kashmir at the heart of India’s nationalist policies. For example, in 2019, India revoked Kashmir’s autonomous status and abolished its special residency laws dating back to 1927. This move intensified restrictions and security policies, especially after the suicide bombing in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir that targeted military personnel and killed 46 soldiers. In response, on February 26, 2019, India launched airstrikes inside Pakistan for the first time since the 1971 war. An aerial battle between the two countries resulted in the downing of fighter jets on both sides.

The Broader Geopolitical Conflict Between the Two Powers

As stated, border disputes have expanded across Asia in general, and between Pakistan and India in particular, and are no longer isolated from regional and international geopolitical contexts. Understanding these disputes, assessing their trajectories, and predicting their future course now require linking them to the broader geostrategic polarization between the United States and China in shaping the emerging international order, especially given that both Pakistan and India play significant and potentially central roles in the strategies of the two global powers.

India is considered the spearhead of the U.S. effort to undermine China’s growing expansion, both beyond its land borders and in maritime domains. This is pursued through multilateral initiatives led by Washington and the bilateral strategic partnership between the two countries. India is also part of the Quad alliance established in 2007 between Japan, Australia, and the United States.

With Modi as prime minister, India’s engagement within the U.S.-led economic and security framework across the Indo-Pacific region has accelerated. In 2016, India signed a logistics exchange memorandum of agreement with the United States that allows its military to use Indian military facilities. In 2018, the two countries signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement that gives India access to highly sensitive American technologies. Then, in 2020, they signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement enabling the exchange of geographic data and intelligence information. In 2022, India commissioned its second aircraft carrier as part of the ongoing India-U.S. competition with China for dominance in the Pacific region. In 2023, during the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, America, the United Arab Emirates, France, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Italy and the European Union launched the “India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor” project to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Conversely, Pakistan maintains strategic relations with China and serves as a key pillar in China’s regional and global strategy, particularly within the framework of its Belt and Road Initiative. In 2015, the two countries signed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) agreement that connects the BRI’s Silk Road Economic Belt in the north with its Maritime Silk Road in the south. This corridor passes through disputed territories in the Kashmir region between Pakistan and India. That same year, Pakistan and China also signed the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement” to enhance cooperation in defense, security, and energy sectors.

China sees a strategic interest in keeping India occupied along its borders and limiting its expansion in the Pacific region. However, this does not mean that it would support Pakistan in a war against India or that it would favor the outbreak of war in the first place. Beijing, for instance, notably declined to support Pakistan during its conflict with India in 1999. China’s position is somewhat similar to that of the United States regarding escalations between the two rivals. Washington does not appear to be siding with either country nor does it seem willing to see a new war erupt in a region even more complex than the Middle East, especially given that it has been less than four years since its 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

While China shares areas of control in the Kashmir region with both India and Pakistan, it also harbors concerns about extremist armed groups operating there, particularly due to their alleged ties to the Uyghurs and the potential threat they pose to Chinese economic projects in the region that are prime targets for such extremists. In 2024, there was a notable increase in attacks against Chinese interests in Pakistan, most prominently the assaults on Pakistan’s Gwadar Port—considered the backbone of CPEC—and the suicide bombing in Islamabad in March 2024 that killed five Chinese nationals. The bottom line is that a war in the region could disrupt China’s rapid rise and potentially drag the United States into a new cycle of exhaustion following its involvement in ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

Pakistani-Indian Escalation in a Broader Perspective

The two countries are getting closer to a potential fifth war—one that could, in theory, lead to outcomes that either accelerate China’s rise to the top of the international order or ensure the United States maintains its global dominance in the long term. However, the actual outbreak of war between Pakistan and India would also result in widespread instability that extends far beyond Asia to impact the entire international community. The world is still grappling with the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war since 2022, followed by the fallout from the war in Gaza amid U.S. efforts to reshape the Middle East and its balance of power.

More critically, the world remains unnerved about the implications of a conflict between two nuclear-armed states. While Russia has repeatedly hinted at using nuclear weapons against indirect parties in its war against Ukraine, the actual use of such weapons could become a real possibility in the event of a conflict between India and Pakistan, given their nuclear parity, intense rivalry, and the complex web of factors surrounding their dispute.

Yet, thankfully, war is not the goal for either side, given its unforeseen consequences. Moreover, both countries are committed to addressing other equally important issues. India seeks to maximize its gains within global geopolitical projects that require comprehensive and long-term security to ensure the efficient and rapid movement of goods. From this standpoint, India’s response to Pakistan came after the most recent attack, aiming to intensify pressure on multiple fronts: military, social, and economic. This was especially evident in its use of the water issue, one of the most sensitive areas as a means of gaining leverage, given that Pakistan depends on river water originating from India for more than 75% of its total water resources.

Conversely, India wants to economically strangle China, challenging it in the Indian Ocean and imposing restrictions on its naval and trade activities as a dual strategic objective. This approach allows India to expand at China’s expense and secure its own economic and international standing while also weakening Pakistan, which heavily relies on its economic ties with China.

As for Pakistan, it is grappling with accumulating internal crises that limit its ability to engage in any external escalation or play an effective offensive role, particularly concerning the Kashmir issue. Economically, the country is suffering from a sharp decline in foreign currency reserves and an inflation rate that has exceeded 30%, the highest in decades.

However, given the intensity of the current escalation, the crisis has surpassed India and Pakistan’s ability to manage it diplomatically or even to seek mediation from major powers such as the United States and China. Each side questions the neutrality of the other and considers it indirectly involved in escalating the crisis.

Accordingly, this crisis differs qualitatively from previous ones, as it has moved beyond a mere border dispute. There are two main scenarios for the current escalation.

A War of Attrition and Ongoing Tension

The escalation may evolve into a prolonged war of attrition, particularly against Pakistan, which has been facing increasing pressure in Kashmir from India since 2019. This pressure has expanded in the recent crisis to target the core pillars of Pakistan’s national security, foremost among them being water resources. This constitutes a direct threat to water and food security and, consequently, to social stability, which is already suffering from severe fragility.

The continuation of this pattern of pressure may push Pakistan to focus on its internal crises and distance itself from active engagement in the Kashmir issue while India proceeds with its policies to alter the region’s demographic composition. However, this option does not eliminate the possibility of confrontation; rather, it keeps tensions alive and places India in a fragile regional environment that could hinder its ambitions and drain its resources, albeit to a lesser extent. This scenario, therefore, implies a postponement of war—not its avoidance.

Military Escalation Leading to De-escalation

Limited clashes may escalate into a battle involving ground and air forces within a narrow geographical scope along the border, without extending into the strategic depths of either country. Through this calculated escalation, India aims to send a serious message to Pakistan regarding its demands without sliding into a full-scale war, an approach that aligns with the government’s domestically directed rhetoric.

Conversely, Pakistan may find itself compelled to engage in a limited confrontation to assert its red lines on the water issue, which has come to be seen as existential. In this context, using water as a weapon would prove extremely costly in the long run. This escalation could also prompt international powers—particularly the United States, China, and the European Union—to take diplomatic action aimed at restoring a degree of stability, even if fragile, to the region.