Afghanistan Is Falling Apart

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is set to be completed by September 11, 2021. Yet the dramatically escalating trajectories, along with the Taliban’s sudden and easy entry into the capital after the collapse of the Afghan army and the escape of President Ashraf Ghani, are indications that the Islamic Emirate might be established before that date and that the U.S. military presence was brought to an end overnight.

Through an organized campaign launched in parallel with the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country, the Taliban took control of one Afghanistan city after another, sounding the alarm in most Western capitals, which took no action. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had previously warned that the situation in Afghanistan was "spinning out of control,” with serious consequences for civilians. In fact, it did get out of control, as reportedly some 250,000 Afghans have been forced to flee their homes as a result of the fighting, besides thousands who were trapped in their cities, finding no means of escape, all threatened by Taliban reprisals for working with the previous government or for contracting with the U.S. military, or simply for their opposition to the Movement.

It seems that in no more than a few months, the Taliban will be able to restore the status quo that existed before the U.S. intervention in the country, bringing back to square one a conflict that cost U.S. taxpayers nearly a billion dollars and claimed the lives of more than 2,300 U.S. troops, as well as the deaths of more than 450 British troops more than 60,000 of Afghan armed forces and tens of thousands of civilians. Yet the Biden administration announced the withdrawal with “no regrets” despite all the ensuing breakdown of security and humanitarian conditions inside Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, in a tweet posted to her official Twitter account on November 15, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote that President Biden “should be thanked for the clarity of the objectives and actions of his statement on Afghanistan.” However, many mistakes have actually been made, with the withdrawal being the biggest, not only in terms of Afghanistan’s domestic timing but also the general situation in the Middle East and the extreme polarization there, not to mention the implications of this withdrawal internally, regionally and internationally, some of which had begun to unfold even before events escalated in such a sudden and suspicious manner.

As a matter of fact, the United States has fought terrorism in Afghanistan only militarily without an "ideological war" or any treatment of popular grievances, which undoubtedly means that terrorism will return, perhaps more violently and bloodily. What is more serious is that the Taliban's re-emergence will give hope to other terrorist organizations in the Middle East, such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, which will be ready to re-establish themselves once the United States or international forces leave any other territory in the region. Just as the Taliban may find international or regional allies such as Erdogan's Islamist regime in Turkey.

Erdogan is willing to meet with the Taliban leader, a Turkish prior recognition of the movement even before it takes control of the entire country, not heeding any position that the United States may take or the sanctions that European countries would be waving. Erdogan wants international recognition for his role in Afghanistan. He will not be alone, however, as Pakistan, which the Afghan government accuses of not standing up against Taliban activities, sees Afghanistan as a starting point for changing balances in the region.