Levant: All Eyes on East

An upcoming Cold War, between a Western axis led by the United States and an Eastern axis, represented primarily by China along with Russia, is being talked about. In addition to the abounding analyses about the importance of the Middle East region in these expected “cold conflicts”, and about what China and Russia are doing to fill any void left by the United States whenever it decides to withdraw from the region, limiting its activities there, or even neutralizing the Middle East from the list of its foreign policy priorities.

In this context, most studies neglect the Arab point of view or the perspective in which Arabs see the “other” in its two forms: the “Western (American-European)” and the “Eastern (Russian-Chinese)”, knowing that this very different perspective will inevitably affect the Arab options in the future if the world truly witnesses a new Cold War, especially if the tools of this war are different and modern that depends on knowledge, technology, systems of ideas and culture, as well as, politics and economics.

While the Arab citizen feels that he knows the West and the finer details of life in it, the East is still vague and puzzling, whether due to weak marketing or counter-marketing. Rather, the citizen hardly knows about the East except for the picture the West paints of it, which is often subject to considerations of politics and competition, not to mention that the West has a more extended experience in Area studies, in addition to, the historical rapprochement among Arab countries and the Middle East, which gave Westerners more ability to communicate with their peoples, and the use of soft power in the appropriate places to paint a bright picture of the West, making it a "dream" in the imagination of every Arab who wishes to live in it, thus, many emigrate to Europe and America, and others adopt the Western lifestyle at homelands.

In this regard, many factors play an important role: languages such as English, French, Spanish, and to a lesser extent German are all well-known and common in the Arab world, albeit in varying proportions, where Arab students study them in schools from an early age, and consequently they form an acquaintanceship with these countries, civilizations, and culture. In opposition to the Chinese and Russian languages, which are still strange to the Arabs who find them very difficult and complex at times, thus, very few choose to learn them and are usually limited to those who wish or have the opportunity to study or work there.

On a related note, the prestigious Western universities, especially those with branches in Arab countries, play a major role in transforming the West into a target for study and specializing; attracting those with talents, skills, and expertise, who as a result of adopting the ideas of the countries t at taught and developed their capabilities naturally turn into marketers for the West. Not to mention, the old "fascination" with Western civilization, its advanced technological capabilities,  high-tech goods, and tools it produces, as opposed to the Chinese product, which was associated in the Arab mind with low price and poor manufacturing, while the Russian product is almost completely absent from the Arab markets, as opposed to the distinguished and of high quality American or European product, which "worth its salt", a stereotype associated with the products of a country in a particular field and applied to the general image of this country and everything related to it in various fields!

Public freedoms, freedom of expression, thought and belief, freedom in art, culture, and innovation, all come to add more positive elements to the desired image of the West in the imagination of the Arab who suffers in most of the Arab countries from injustice, exclusion, oppression, and deprivation of his most basic daily rights. Hence, he finds that the West will respect his ideas, visions, and rights, in contrast to the East, which may not differ much in this respect from most Arab ideological and totalitarian regimes, especially since most of these regimes were built on the model of the Soviet-Russian. This resulted in the Western “democratic political systems” playing a role in the privileged position of Western policies among the Arabs, as the majority of the Arab street follows the US, UK, and European countries elections, is familiar with their systems, and can name heads of state and government, even ministers, the most famous politicians, thinkers, researchers, and analysts. On the other hand, Arabs know very little about Russia, and even much less about China.

In turn, not all factors are in favor of the West, as the disappointment of the Arab street with the US foreign policies towards several Arab and Middle Eastern countries cannot be overlooked, especially in the last two decades. While it was the hope of a large group of Arabs that the Americans would bring order, democracy, and freedoms to the region, outcomes were counterproductive. In fact, the American intervention brought back bad memories of the time of the British or French mandate, and in many cases bypassed them when it allowed the emergence of terrorist organizations in the region that are still destabilizing several Arab countries, in addition, the American intervention allowed strengthening some regional states in a way that threatens the security of Arab countries. Iran is a clear example that is counted against the West, but also against Russia and China, which recently insist on supporting Tehran and refuse to abandon it, despite its record of violating human rights inside Iran, and its blatant interventions in the region and its deployment of armed militias that infringe on governments and the armies of different Arab countries. Therefore, America's retreat from its role in the region will cause more disappointments for the Arabs, especially as their governments are getting closer to Beijing and Moscow, which are making vigorous efforts in this regard.

The two Eastern superpowers realize the importance of strengthening their relations with the countries of the region. China focuses on the economy and technology, while Russia focuses on political and diplomatic relations, and mediation between contentious issues, especially since no history or heritage unites them with the Arabs, nor a colonial legacy. However, these two countries focus on official interaction with the ruling regimes, authorities, and governments in the Arab countries, in return for neglecting the peoples and civil societies and the Arab political, economic, media, intellectual, cultural, and academic elites. The eastern model of governance resembles the Arab system in the almost complete lack of trust in civil and non-governmental organizations, which makes the two eastern powers lose the popular ground needed to build close relations with the peoples of these Arab countries.

In turn, the Arabs deal with China as an economic power, importer of energy, and exporter of many products, and despite its relatively near distance, they see it as far away in the far east, so the Arab elites in the Gulf, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq are linked to America and Britain, while the ones in the Levant and North Africa are linked with France, and generally move away from Russia and China, and feel that China’s interest in the region is due mostly to the geography occupied by the Middle East, as it is the joint linking land and sea routes to the Belt and Road Initiative, and affects China’s communication plans with Eurasia, as China’s presence was and still is based on its economic interests only, and do not even try to cover it up - as the West does - with achieving the aspirations of the Arab peoples.

In conclusion, in any upcoming Cold War, or any form of competition for mapping influence in the Middle East and the world, the American and European West will continue to have a preferential position among the Arab peoples in general, but this position is exposed to strong “Eastern” competition, and it needs a great deal of work and effort to consolidate and strengthening it. This requires the United States to rebuild trust with the Middle Eastern countries, and to provide clear and effective support to its allies, to be able to reject the temptations coming from the East, and at the same time be able to face challenges, work to end existing conflicts and establish peace and stability in the region, and to be an effective and influential ally in any map of global influence drawn or will be.