How will the Arab Parties' Alliances Change the Israeli Landscape in the Upcoming Elections?

Introduction

The twenty-fifth Israeli Knesset elections, scheduled for November 1, 2022 come in light of a second split, witnessed by the Arab parties and lists participating in those elections. The National Democratic Rally party announced its exit from the Joint Arab List coalition, becoming a single electoral that will run in the Knesset elections. Thereby, the components of the Joint Arab List are limited to a bilateral coalition that includes (the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the Arab Movement for Change), in addition to the United Arab List as a single third list.

The experience of the Joint Arab List, formed in 2015 from the four main Arab parties in Israel (the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the Arab Movement for Change, the National Democratic Rally party, and the Southern Islamic Movement) in running in the elections for the twentieth Knesset, in the same year with a unified list, and obtained 13 seats, did not last after it was divided in the Knesset twenty-first elections, the in April 2019, where it split into two lists; the first of which includes (the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality and the Arab Movement for Change) which obtained six seats, while the second includes (the National Democratic Rally party and the United Arab List of the Southern Islamic Movement) which won four seats.

As for the Knesset twenty-second elections, held in early September 2019, the Joint Arab List returned to run in the elections in a unified form, that included its four components, obtaining 13 seats, and then increased the number of seats to 15 in the Knesset twenty-third elections 2020, scoring a major breakthrough as the third bloc, after the Likud bloc headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Blue and White bloc headed by Benny Gantz.

But the unity of the Joint Arab List did not continue after the 2020 Knesset elections, where the United Arab List, which represents the Southern Islamic Movement, came out solely to run in the elections of the Knesset twenty-fourth elections 2021, obtaining four seats, compared to six seats for the Joint Arab List, with its remaining three components (Front, Rally and Arab for Change). The division continued with the announcement of the National Democratic Rally party its exit from the Joint Arab List, in the elections of the next Knesset twenty-fifth elections, and also the announcement of the contestation of these Arab parties in such elections with three separate lists.

The Arab Parties in Israel

The map of the current Arab parties in Israel, according to their position on participation in the Israeli Knesset elections, is divided into two parts. The majority of which adopts participation, and it actually participates in such elections. It consists of: The Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the National Democratic Rally Party, the Arab Movement for Change, and the Southern Islamic Movement. While the second section does not adopt participating in such elections nor calls for a boycott them. It consists of: The Northern Islamic Movement and the Sons of the Country Movement. Here is an introductory profile of each of such parties:

1. The Democratic Front for Peace and Equality

It is a joint Arab-Jewish "Arab-Jewish" left-wing political movement founded in 1977 by the Israeli Communist Party (Rakah) and small left-wing groups. Currently, it headed by Knesset member lawyer Ayman Odeh, who is also the head of the Joint Arab List.

2. National Democratic Rally Party

Identifying itself as a "democratic Palestinian national Arab nationalist party". Founded in 1995 by Azmi Bishara, as well as members of small Arab movements, such as the Sons of the Country Movement and the Progressive Movement for Peace (founded by former Knesset member Mohammad Mi'ari in 1984), and the party's list is currently headed by academic Knesset member Sami Abu Shehadeh.

3. The Arab Movement for Change

A national social movement, founded in 1996 by Dr. Ahmed Tibi and a group of members of the Progressive Movement for Peace, who refused to join the National Democratic Rally party. The movement is currently headed by MK Dr. Ahmed Tibi, a former adviser to former Palestinian President Yasser Arafat.

4. The Southern Islamic Movement

The wing of the Islamic Movement that participates in the Knesset elections. It contributed in forming the "United Arab List" with the Arab Democratic Party (founded by former Knesset member, Abdul Wahab Darousha, in 1988), then contributed with the Arab Movement for Change until the 2015 elections. The United Arab List, later, became the political party of the Southern Islamic Movement. The list is at present headed by MK Dr. Mansour Abbas.

5. The Northern Islamic Movement

It is the wing of the Islamic Movement that refuses to participate in the Knesset elections, forming an independent movement, headed by Sheikh Raed Salah. This movement was banned and de-law in Israel in 2015 by a decision of the Israeli government, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu at the time.

6. Abnaa el-Balad (Sons of the Country) Movement

 is a small leftist movement, close to Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine line of thought. Founded in 1972. Initially, refuses to participate in the upcoming Knesset elections and calls for a boycott. It is currently headed by Muhammad Kanaana.

Disputes and Knesset Elections

parties operating in Israel, like the rest of the world's political parties, are amid a status of divergence and change, as political dispute is basically the spirit of party work. However, this has not prevented the development of partial interim alliances situations so often, nor it did for a one-time comprehensive alliance.

The comprehensive alliance between Arab parties took place in the 2020 elections, during Knesset twenty-third elections, between the four main parties that formed the United Arab List, which won 15 of the 120 seats; the largest number of seats won by Arab parties, collectively or individually. But that alliance formed a second time, despite the significant gains made by the Joint List as the third bloc in the Knesset.

Aside from the stated reasons for the breakdown of the Joint List, the competition between the Arab parties in Israel, to lead the Palestinian Arab masses and the quest for their representation, seems to be the main reason for not repeating the experience of the comprehensive alliance, a historical competition in the Palestinian case, especially between nationalist, Marxist, and Islamic currents. The recent statements of the National Democratic Rally Secretary-General, Imtanes Shehadeh, in which he said that "our society is not confined between the choice of the Islamic Movement and the Communist Party" are a clear indication for this.

Interests and Concessions Calculations

Partisan and political calculations of the Arab parties, participating in the Israeli Knesset elections, the quest for a radical change in Israel's strategic policies is not so much clear, as the fact that those calculations are limited by a ceiling governed by Israeli laws themselves, and also by the ability to improve the living conditions of Arab citizens, or so-called Palestinians of the interior (approximately 1.700.000 citizens), especially on issues of full citizenship and non-discrimination. This was evidently demonstrated in the discourses of those parties, after signing Oslo Accords between the PLO and the government of Israel. Such Accord officially removed the "Palestinians of the interior" from the PLO's calculations, who became Arab "Israeli citizens". As a result, there was a feeling of "betrayal" by Arab political parties in Israel, thus, such parties' discourses further shifted toward the Palestinian "inside" and its issues.

Should the Arab parties' position in Israel is understood in this respect, then the way to achieve this will be through the rules of the parliamentary game, and the ability to influence the internal policies of the Israeli government towards the Arab citizens of Israel, on the basis of "interests exchange" and "concessions", the matter which is done through the formation of a wider coalition list to run in the Knesset elections on that basis. This is agreed upon at a minimum by the Arab parties' programs, away from their intellectual fundamental thoughts and regional political calculations, the matter that was already been achieved in the elections of the Knesset twenty-third elections 2020, and confirmed by the previous elections results, as indicated by the results of opinion polls on the upcoming elections.

The results of the previous elections carried many figures, indicating the direct relationship between the Arab parties' "unity" of electoral lists, and the number of seats they obtained. The opposite is true in the opposite case, where the number of seats decreased when such lists individually or bilaterally ran in the elections, which is what opinion polls predict the number of seats in the Knesset twenty-fifth elections.

According to the latest opinion polls, conducted by Israeli channels 12 and 14; the Front and Arab for Change number of seats will not exceed four. The same number expected for the United Arab List. The list of the National Democratic Rally party will not pass the decisive rate of 3.25%. While the polls expectations, that preceded the separation of the Gathering party from the Joint List, indicated that the List would get six seats (a poll by the Israeli newspaper Maariv at the beginning of August), or a minimum of five seats (a poll Channel 13 Hebrew).

By comparison, it is clear that the significant the Arab lists will face a "loss", where those lists will lose two seats, due to the exit of the Rally party from the Joint List, after losing much more than that, with the previous exit of the United Arab List. In the case of the latter, the Arab lists may not guarantee reaching the decisive percentage, in the event of a decline in the percentage of Arab voters due to the division between Arab parties, as well as due to the continuation of Israeli military operations in the West Bank.

Conclusion

The biggest interest, in the case of the Arab lists division, will be the responsibility of Yair Lapid camp, which will ensure supporting the United Arab List if it passes the decisive percentage. Such list is the partner list in his current government coalition. Lapid may also guarantee getting a support from the "Front, Arab, and Change" parties, because of the exit of the Rally Party, a party that opposes the recommendation to him and to Netanyahu as well, to head the next government. Lapid may benefit from the scenario of failure to form a government, thus remaining his current government as a caretaker government, until another new election is held.

Secondly -and equally important- is that Benjamin Netanyahu's camp's interest, in the case of Arab list division, will be no less than that of Lapid, if his camp succeeds in forming a right-wing majority, supporting him because of the low number of seats on Arab lists resulting from the reluctance of Arab voters to participate, or even the failure of Arab lists to pass the decisive percentage.

In both cases, the biggest losers are the Arab citizens of Israel, where the Arab lists, represented in the Knesset in their single form, and their few seats, will not be able to make real "breakthroughs" in favor of those citizens. All Such lists will be busy by maintaining their internal balances between the two large coalitions (Lapid and Netanyahu) and their calculations. The two said coalitions see in these lists only a group of "Arab" Knesset members representing their parties and local areas, not "representatives" of the Arab-Palestinian community. They even do not see them as "representatives" of a big Arab majority, with collective political and civil rights.