Elections to the Twenty-fifth Knesset: Lists and Scenarios

Introduction

Israel's early elections for the twenty-fifth Knesset, scheduled for November 1, 2022, are witnessing a big deal of polarization among candidate lists, with the Israeli Central Elections Commission announced that forty electoral lists were registered to run in those elections, including three Arab lists.

The elections for the twenty-fifth Knesset come after the former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's decision to dissolve the Israeli Knesset, and  go to early parliamentary elections, after failing to pass (the law extension of judicial procedures in the West Bank). The Israeli elections also comes in light of the Democratic National Rally party exit from the coalition of the Joint Arab List, where the said party decided to run in the elections with a single independent list. As this is how it is on the domestic Israeli arena, while the region and the whole world are witnessing a range of complicated political, economic, and security conditions.

Therefore, these elections, the fifth early elections held in three years (2019-2022) are significant to the Israeli affairs observers, as well as observers of the situation in the Middle East, as well as the issues of the Arab-Israeli conflict observers.

Lists and Classification

The traditional Israeli parties lists classification, based on their proximity to the right or left, is not enough to clarify the aspects of agreement or disagreement between those lists, especially since their predominant characteristic is being "right wing" or close to the right wing, in light of the left-wing or near-left parties' decline. Thus, the criterion of proximity to Benjamin Netanyahu's "right" and his camp seems to be the criterion that is most capable to clarify, when trying to extrapolate the map of future alliances, and the form of the next Israeli government.

Although forty electoral lists are running for the twenty-fifth Knesset, expectations indicate that most of these lists will not pass the 3.25% decisive threshold, where 10 to 12 lists are expected to pass that threshold. The most important of which are:

First: The list of the "Likud" party Bloc

It is the list of Benjamin Netanyahu's well-known right-wing Likud party, which includes 43 candidates. It won 30 of the 120 seats in the elections for the twenty-fourth Knesset.

Second: The list of "Religious Zionism" Party and "Otzma Yehudit "

It is a coalition list between Bezalel Smotrich's far-right Religious Zionist party, and Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right Otzma Yehudit party. The list was agreed upon in a tripartite meeting with and with Netanyahu's and by his support. This list won six seats in the twenty-fourth Knesset elections.

Third: The United Torah Judaism "Judea of the Torah"

It is a coalition list between the Torah Science Party Degel HaTorah and the Israel League Agudat Israel, two of the ultra-Orthodox Orthodox Western Jews (Haredim) parties. This list has the support of Netanyahu, due to his promises to increase the budget for religious education if he assumes the presidency of a coalition government, which the list is made thereof. This list won seven seats in the elections for the twenty-fourth Knesset.

Fourth: List of the Party of Eastern Guardians of the Torah "Shas"

It is the list of the Shash party of religious Eastern Jews "Sephardim", known for being extreme right, led by Aryeh Deri. It won nine seats in the elections for the twenty-fourth Knesset.

Fifth: List of HaBayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home)

It is a right-wing list, headed by Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked. This list was on the list of the settler-backed right-wing Yamina party, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. This list won seven seats in the twenty-fourth Knesset elections.

Sixth: List of Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel our Home)

It is the list of the right-wing nationalist (Yisrael Beiteinu) party, headed by Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman. The list won seven seats in the twenty-fourth Knesset elections.

Seventh: List of Yesh Atid (There is a Future)

Led by current Prime Minister, Yair Lapid. It is a more centrist liberal list, with 38 candidates. it won 17 seats in the twenty-fourth Knesset elections.

Eighth: List of HaMaḥane HaMamlakhti (the State Camp)

It is a new list in terms of composition. It includes the center-right New Hope party headed by Likud defector Gideon Sa'ar, who won six seats in the twenty-fourth Knesset elections, the center-right Blue and White party headed by Defense Minister Benny Gantz, and the Blue and White party that won eight seats in the twenty-fourth Knesset, as well as former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, who refused to join Yair Lapid's list.

Ninth: List of Maarakh (Labor Party)

It is the list of the well-known center-left Labor Party, headed by Merav Mikhaili. The list won seven seats in the elections for the twenty-fourth Knesset.

Tenth: list of Meretz Party

It is the list of the well-known left-wing Meretz party, headed by Zehava Galon. It won six seats in the elections for the twenty-fourth Knesset.

Eleventh: Joint Arab List (The Front and Arab for Change)

It is a coalition list between the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality (Ayman Odeh) and the Arab Movement for Change (Ahmed Tibi), headed by Ayman Odeh. The list won six seats in the twenty-fourth Knesset elections, in a tripartite coalition with the Democratic National Rally party.

Twelfth: The Unified Arab List

It is the list of the Southern Islamic Movement headed by Mansour Abbas, which won four seats in the elections for the twenty-fourth Knesset.

Thirteenth: List of the Democratic National Rally

It is the Democratic National Rally (NDA) list, that emerged from the Joint Arab List coalition, but decided to run independently. It is headed by Sami Abu Shehadeh.

Fourteenth: Other Lists

Dozens of small lists, that are not expected to pass the threshold, were registered, such as: the New Economy, the Economic Freedom, A Free and Democratic Israel, There is a Direction, Crossroads, New Independents, the Dawn of Social Power, the Path, the Social Leadership, the Bible Bloc party, the Jewish Heart, something new for the "elderly", and others.

Surveys & Indications

Addressing the scenarios of forming the next Israeli government is related to the reality of the crisis experienced by the current government, in addition to the crisis of Arab lists, demonstrated by some facts and indications, such as the breakdown of "Yamina" party, headed by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, after his decision to retire from political life, also the breakdown of the Joint Arab List after the exit of the Tagammu Party, and its decision to run in the elections alone, besides the experience of the United Arab List in joining the government coalition, and the big deal of criticism to it because of this, the matter which may have contribute to decreasing Arab voters rates' turnout in the twenty-fifth Knesset.

The expectation of a decrease in the percentage of voting, among Arab voters, was indicated thereto by many opinion polls, the latest of which was the poll of the Israeli channel "Kan" and the research institute "Statenet" on October 4, 2022, which showed that the percentage of voting will be approximately 39%, compared to 43.5% in the elections for the twenty-fourth Knesset. This means that more than 60% of Arab voters will not participate in voting. There are expectation that 29% of Arab voters will vote for the United Arab List, 11% of them will vote for the list of the Democratic National Rally Party, and 11% will vote to The Front and Arab List for Change's List.

Public opinion polls, over two months, are similar in their predictions that the expected number of votes for the two major camps, Netanyahu's camp and Lapid's camp, will be neck-to-neck. In a poll, conducted by the Israeli newspaper Maariv on August 30, 2022, Netanyahu camp was expected to receive 59 Knesset members: 31 for the Likud party, 13 for the Religious Zionist Coalition, 8 for the Shas party, and 7 for the "Judaism of Torah Judaism" coalition, compared to Lapid's camp for 57 seats: 24 for Yesh Atid, 13 for the National Camp Coalition, 6 for Yisrael Beiteinu, 5 for the Labor Party, 5 for the Meretz party, 4 for the United Arab List, in addition to 4 expected seats for the Front and Arab List for Change. There were expectations that the Democratic National Rally will not be able to pass the threshold and get 1.6% of the vote, which is the same expectation for the Jewish Home list, headed by Ayelet Shaked, expected to receive 1.9% of the vote.

The Maariv poll results is largely close to the Israeli Channel 12 poll on the same date, with 59 seats for Netanyahu's camp, and 57 seats for Lapid's camp, but with slight differences in the number of seats for the parties of the two camps, both of which indicate a relative decline for Netanyahu's camp compared to previous polls, such as the Israeli Channel 13 poll on August 14, which predicted that Netanyahu's camp would get 60 seats, compared to 54 seats for Lapid's camp. A previous poll by Israel's Channel 12 expected that Netanyahu's camp would get 59 seats, 55 seats for Lapid's camp. Both polls are relatively different from a previous Maariv poll on August 16, that expected the two camps would get 57 seats each, markedly different from a previous poll by Israel's Channel 14 which predicted that Netanyahu's camp would get 62 seats.

The latest opinion polls do not carry many changes in their expectations, as the Channel 12 poll, on October 18, 2022, indicated that Likud will get 30 seats, while "Yesh Atid" party will get 25 seats, "Religious Zionism" will get 14 seats, "National Union" will get 12 seats, Shas will get 8 seats, Torah Judaism will get 7 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu will get 6 seats, Labor party will get 5 seats, and Meretz will get 5 seats, while the "Front/Arab Front" Alliance for Change will get 4 seats, same seats for the "Unified List". "Maariv" newspaper, in its poll on October 21, 2022, predicted that the Benjamin Netanyahu's camp will get 60 seats, compared to 56 seats for the  opponent camp led by Yair Lapid, so that the Likud party will get 31 seats, "Religious Zionism" will get 14 seats, "Shas" will get 8 seats, and  7 seats" for Judea Torah",23 seats for "Yesh Atid", 12 seats for the National Camp, 7 seats for Israel Beiteinu, 5 seats for the Labor Party, 5 seats for Meretz, 4 seats for the Unified List, 4 seats  for the Front/Arab Alliance for Change, while the Democratic National Rally and Jewish Home parties will not exceeded the threshold.

The latest opinion poll, ahead of the elections, is the Israeli public radio poll "Kan" on October 24, 2022, which predicted that the Likud party would maintain its strength and gain 31 seats, and that Religious Zionism party would fall by one seat in favor of Shas, obtaining 13 seats, while Shas would gain 9 seats, Torah Judaism would get 7 seats, Yesh atid lost 1 seat to the National Camp which won 24 seats, while the National Camp got 12 seats, and Yisrael Beiteinu gets 6 seats, Labor Party gets 5 seats, as well as Meretz, and the Unified List gets 4 seats. According to these results, Netanyahu wins 60 seats, compared to 56 seats for Lapid's camp. The "Front/Arab List for Change" gets 4 seats, while the strength of the Democratic National Rally party rose to 1.8% of the vote, and the Jewish Home party continued to decline with 1.6% of the vote.

The important indications that most different opinion polls had, show expectations that neither camp will be able to obtain an absolute majority (61 out of 120 seats). They also indicate that the list of Sami Abu Shehadeh's Democratic National Rally party and Ayelet Shaked's Jewish Home list will not pass the required threshold.

Scenarios of the Next Government

In light of all of the above, the following scenarios for the future of the next Israeli government are expected

First: A government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu

This scenario is achieved by the Netanyahu camp (Likud, Religious Zionism, Jewish Power, the United Jewish Torah, Shas and Shas seats), a scenario that will be strengthened if the Jewish Home list manages to pass the threshold and join the Netanyahu camp. Its chances increase as the Democratic National Rally party's list will not pass the threshold, and as the Arab voters' percentage has declined.

Second: A government headed by Yair Lapid

Such scenario is achieved by obtaining 61 seats for Lapid (Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu, the Labor Party, Meretz, the United Arab List, the State Camp), a scenario that will decline if the Jewish Home list manages to pass the threshold and joins Netanyahu's camp, or if the unified Arab List would not pass the threshold. Its chances may also improve if the Front and Arab Change List passes the threshold, and decided to support Lapid's candidacy to head the government.

Third: A unity government between Likud and the State Camp

It is a scenario that depends on the success of an initiative by some members of the Likud party, to form a unity government between the Netanyahu's camp on one hand, and the list of the State Camp, headed by Defense Minister Benny Gantz on another hand, so that leading it is alternated between Benny Gantz and one of the Likud candidates "except Netanyahu" but with the Likud candidate be named by Netanyahu and Gantz, with Netanyahu remaining the leader of the Likud party. This scenario is linked to the fourth scenario on the one hand, and to the balances of power centers and their internal calculations within the Likud party on the other, especially in terms of competition for Party leadership.

Fourth: A caretaker government headed by Lapid

It is a scenario related to the inability of either camp to obtain 61 seats, and their failure to make a breakthrough in favor of recommending any of their candidates to be the prime minister, the matter that means that the Knesset will return to the crisis that has lasted for more than three years, it also means that Yair Lapid will remain the caretaker prime minister, until new early elections are held.

According to the current data so far, the first and fourth scenarios seem to be the closest to realization, especially as Netanyahu's camp is firm while Lapid's camp is disintegrated, along with the division of the Joint Arab List, and the possibility of losing thousands of Arab votes if the Democratic National Rally party may not pass the threshold, in addition to the expectations of a decline in the percentage of Arab voters, which increases the percentage of votes of the nearby right-wing parties allied with Netanyahu.

Conclusion

The elections for the 25^th Knesset carry many indications, perhaps the most important of which is the fading of fundamental differences between the two rival camps, especially in terms of the position on Arab-Israeli relations and the political settlement of the Palestinian cause, in addition to the survival of the central role of Likud party's leader Benjamin Netanyahu in the electoral process, as in Israeli political life.

The experience of the current government (Bennett/Lapid) has proven, through its real practice, that the competition between the two camps has nothing to do with ideological identity or the political programs between the right and the left. The current government was similar to all the governments previously headed by Netanyahu, whether with regard to military operations in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, settlement measures, and violations of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, or the continuation of racist policies against the Palestinian citizens of Israel, especially in the Negev, not to forget other issues.

The above data will have an impact on the mood of Arab voters in Israel, leading to a high rate of not voting in the elections. Abstaining voting was reinforced by the failures of Arab parties and due to their internal divisions, in addition to indirect repercussions on the Palestinian and Arab surrounding conditions, as neither the Palestinians or the Arabs were interested in the results of those elections and what form would the next Israeli government might be, since, in all its possibilities, such government will not bring about a real novelty.

[ Translator Note: names of the parties in red could not be verified.]